Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Poll Shows Floridians Oppose Amendment 2?

A poll by Quinnipiac in early September shows that only about 55 percent of the sampled Floridians are ready to oppose Amendment 2, which if it passes, will define marriage as strictly one between a man and a woman. At least 60 percent is needed to get this amendment through. Read the article below, which is from The San Francisco Examiner. According to information I gathered from the Quinnipiac website, the poll was conducted from September 2 - 4, and it surveyed 1,427 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. (see Quinnipiac poll). By most definitions of statistical analysis, this is a large sample, in spite of what the article below claims.

The San Francisco Examiner

Are voters shifting against gay marriage?

October 7, 11:14 AM
by J.D. Tuccille, Civil Liberties Examiner

Not too long ago, it seemed that California's Proposition 8, which would amend the state constitution to restrict marriage to be "between a man and a woman," was going down to a well-deserved defeat. Polls showing opposition to the measure above 50% reinforced the impression that the state where the courts just recently legalized same-sex marriage was an unlikely environment for a socially conservative backlash.
And the last time the matter was put before Arizona voters, in 2006, live-and-let-live westerners rejected the notion of preventing gays and lesbians from solemnifying their relationships, 51.4% to 48.6%.

But that was then; this is now.

The latest SurveyUSA poll (PDF) of California voters finds support for Proposition 8 at 47%, with opposition at 42%. The shift in favor seems to come from young people, ages 18-34, who moved from opposition to support the measure by 53% to 39%.

Along the same lines, Arizona's Proposition 102, which would also change the state constitution to define marriage as between one man and one woman, wins 49% support to 42% opposition in the latest Cronkite-Eight poll.

The only good news is that Florida's anti-gay Amendment 2, yet another constitutional amendment, only has 55% support, according to a recent Quinnipiac poll.

Good news?

Well ... yeah. That's because 60% support is required to amend the state constitution. Anything short of that is a defeat for the measure.

Hey, you take your victories where you find them.

It should also be noted that the California SurveyUSA poll results are a stark break from earlier polling, and are drawn from a small sample (670 likely voters) with a sizeable margin of error. So the news there might not be all that bad.

But for the same reason, the news from Florida might not be all that good.

And if California does formally define marriage as a monopoly of heterosexual couples, what happens to the 11,000 same-sex marriages that have been performed since the practice was legalized?

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